VATICAN CITY (AP) — A celebrated saying successful Vatican circles is that if you “enter a conclave arsenic pope, you time off arsenic a cardinal.”
It implies the ineffable and secretive process is nary fame title aliases campaign, but alternatively nan divinely inspired predetermination of Christ’s Vicar connected Earth by nan princes of nan church.
Still, location are ever front-runners, known arsenic “papabile,” who person astatine slightest immoderate of nan qualities considered basal to beryllium pope — overmuch for illustration those depicted successful past year’s Oscar-nominated movie “Conclave.”
Any baptized Catholic antheral is eligible, though only cardinals person been selected since 1378. The victor must person astatine slightest two-thirds of nan ballot from those cardinals nether property 80 and frankincense eligible to participate. Pope Francis, who died Monday, appointed nan immense mostly of electors, often tapping men who stock his pastoral priorities, which suggests continuity alternatively than rupture.
Anyone trying to handicap nan result should retrieve that Jorge Mario Bergoglio was considered excessively aged to beryllium elected pope successful 2013 astatine property 76, and that Karol Wojtyla wasn’t connected immoderate front-runner lists going into nan 1978 conclave that elected him Pope John Paul II.
Some imaginable candidates:
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Erdo, 72, nan archbishop of Budapest and primate of Hungary, was doubly elected caput of nan Council of European Episcopal Conferences, successful 2005 and 2011, suggesting he enjoys nan esteem of European cardinals who dress up nan biggest voting bloc of electors. In that capacity, Erdo sewage to cognize galore African cardinals because nan assembly hosts regular sessions pinch African bishops’ conferences. Erdo had moreover much vulnerability erstwhile he helped shape Francis’ 2014 and 2015 Vatican meetings connected nan family and delivered cardinal speeches, arsenic good arsenic during papal visits to Budapest successful 2021 and 2023.
Cardinal Reinhard Marx
Marx, 71, nan archbishop of Munich and Freising, was chosen by Francis arsenic a cardinal advisor successful 2013. Marx later was named to caput nan assembly overseeing Vatican finances during reforms and belt-tightening. The erstwhile president of nan German bishops’ convention was a beardown proponent of nan arguable “synodal path” process of speech successful nan German religion that began successful 2020 arsenic a consequence to nan clergy intersexual maltreatment scandal there. As a result, he is viewed pinch skepticism by conservatives who considered nan process a threat to religion unity, fixed it progressive debating issues specified arsenic celibacy, homosexuality and women’s ordination. Marx made headlines successful 2021 erstwhile he dramatically offered to resign arsenic archbishop to atone for nan German church’s dreadful maltreatment record, but Francis quickly rejected nan resignation and told him to stay.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet
Ouellet, 80, of Canada, led nan Vatican’s influential bishops agency for complete a decade, overseeing nan cardinal clearinghouse for imaginable candidates to caput dioceses astir nan world. Francis kept Ouellet successful nan occupation until 2023, moreover though he was appointed by Pope Benedict XVI, and frankincense helped prime nan much doctrinaire bishops preferred by nan German pontiff. Considered much of a blimpish than Francis, Ouellet still selected pastorally minded bishops to bespeak Francis’ belief that bishops should “smell for illustration nan sheep” of their flock. Ouellet defended priestly celibacy for nan Latin Rite religion and upheld nan prohibition connected women’s ordination but called for women to person a greater domiciled successful religion governance. He has bully contacts pinch nan Latin American church, having headed nan Vatican’s Pontifical Commission for Latin America for complete a decade. Since 2019, his agency has taken complaint of investigating bishops accused of covering up for predator priests, a occupation that would person made him nary friends among those sanctioned but besides could person fixed him tons of different confidential and perchance compromising accusation astir chap cardinals.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Parolin, 70, of Italy, has been Francis’ caput of authorities since 2014 and is considered 1 of nan main contenders to beryllium pope, fixed his prominence successful nan Catholic hierarchy. The seasoned diplomat oversaw nan Holy See’s arguable deal pinch China complete bishop nominations and was progressive ― but not charged ― successful nan Vatican’s botched finance successful a London existent property task that led to a 2021 proceedings of different cardinal and 9 others. A erstwhile ambassador to Venezuela, Parolin knows nan Latin American religion well. He would beryllium seen arsenic personification who would proceed successful Francis’ contented but arsenic a much sober and timid negotiated insider, returning an Italian to nan papacy aft 3 successive outsiders: St. John Paul II (Poland); Benedict (Germany) and Francis (Argentina). But while Parolin has managed nan Vatican bureaucracy, he has nary existent pastoral experience. His ties to nan London scandal, successful which his agency mislaid of tens of millions of dollars to bad deals and shady businessmen, could count against him.
Cardinal Robert Prevost
The thought of an American pope has agelong been taboo, fixed nan geopolitical powerfulness already wielded by nan United States. But nan Chicago-born Prevost, 69, could beryllium a first. He has extended acquisition successful Peru, first arsenic a missionary and past an archbishop, and he is presently prefect of nan Vatican’s powerful dicastery for bishops, successful complaint of vetting nominations for bishops astir nan world. Francis intelligibly had an oculus connected him for years and sent him to tally nan diocese of Chiclayo, Peru, successful 2014. He held that position until 2023, erstwhile Francis brought him to Rome for his existent role. Prevost is besides president of nan Pontifical Commission for Latin America, a occupation that keeps him successful regular interaction pinch nan Catholic level successful nan portion of nan world that still counts nan astir Catholics. In summation to his nationality, Prevost’s comparative younker could count against him if his relative cardinals don’t want to perpetrate to a pope who mightiness reign for different 2 decades.
Cardinal Robert Sarah
Sarah, 79, of Guinea, nan retired caput of nan Vatican’s liturgy office, was agelong considered nan champion dream for an African pope. Beloved by conservatives, Sarah would awesome a return to nan doctrinaire and liturgically minded papacies of John Paul II and Benedict. Sarah, who had antecedently headed nan Vatican’s kindness agency Cor Unum, fought connected respective occasions pinch Francis, nary much earnestly than erstwhile he and Benedict co-authored a book advocating nan “necessity” of continued celibacy for Latin Rite priests. The book came retired arsenic Francis was weighing whether to let joined priests successful nan Amazon to reside a leader shortage there. The accusation was that Sarah had manipulated Benedict into lending his sanction and civilized authority to a book that had each nan appearances of being a counterweight to nan Francis’ ain teaching. Francis dismissed Benedict’s caput and respective months later retired Sarah aft he turned 75. Even Sarah’s supporters lamented nan section wounded his papal chances.
Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn
Schoenborn, 80, nan archbishop of Vienna, Austria, was a student of Benedict’s, and frankincense connected insubstantial seems to person nan doctrinaire world chops to entreaty to conservatives. However, he became associated pinch 1 of Francis’ astir arguable moves by defending his outreach to divided and civilly remarried Catholics arsenic an “organic improvement of doctrine,” not nan rupture that immoderate conservatives contended. Schoenborn’s parents divided erstwhile he was a teen, truthful nan rumor is personal. He besides took power from nan Vatican erstwhile he criticized its past refusal to punishment high-ranking intersexual abusers, including his predecessor arsenic archbishop of Vienna. Schoenborn has expressed support for civilian unions and women arsenic deacons, and was instrumental successful editing nan 1992 update of nan Catechism of nan Catholic Church, nan handbook of nan church’s school that Benedict had spearheaded erstwhile he headed nan Vatican’s doctrine office.
Cardinal Luis Tagle
Tagle, 67, of nan Philippines, would look to beryllium Francis’ prime for nan first Asian pope. Francis brought nan celebrated archbishop of Manila to Rome to caput nan Vatican’s missionary evangelization office, which serves nan needs of nan Catholic Church successful overmuch of Asia and Africa. His domiciled took connected greater weight erstwhile Francis reformed nan Vatican bureaucracy and raised nan value of his evangelization office. Tagle often cites his Chinese lineage – his maternal grandma was portion of a Chinese family that moved to nan Philippines ― and he is known for becoming affectional erstwhile discussing his childhood. Though he has pastoral, Vatican and guidance acquisition ― he headed nan Vatican’s Caritas Internationalis federation of kindness groups earlier coming to Rome permanently ― Tagle would beryllium connected nan young broadside to beryllium elected pope for life, pinch cardinals possibly preferring an older campaigner whose papacy would beryllium much limited.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Zuppi, 69, nan archbishop of Bologna and president of nan Italian bishops conference, elected successful 2022, is intimately affiliated pinch nan Sant’Egidio Community, a Rome-based Catholic kindness that was influential nether Francis, peculiarly successful interfaith dialogue. Zuppi was portion of Sant’Egidio’s squad that helped discuss nan extremity of Mozambique’s civilian warfare successful nan 1990s and was named Francis’ peace envoy for Russia’s warfare successful Ukraine. Francis made him a cardinal successful 2019 and later made clear he wanted him successful complaint of Italy’s bishops, a motion of his admiration for nan prelate who, for illustration Francis, is known arsenic a “street priest.” In different motion of his progressive leanings and closeness to Francis, Zuppi wrote nan preamble to nan Italian version of “Building a Bridge,” by nan Rev. James Martin, an American Jesuit, astir nan church’s request to amended its outreach to nan LGBTQ+ community. Zuppi would beryllium a campaigner successful Francis’ contented of ministering to those connected nan margins, though his comparative younker would count against him for cardinals seeking a short papacy. His family had beardown organization ties: Zuppi’s begetter worked for nan Vatican newspaper L’Osservatore Romano, and his mother was nan niece of Cardinal Carlo Confalonieri, dean of nan College of Cardinals successful nan 1960s and 1970s.