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BEIRUT (AP) — The past clip Syrian President Bashar Assad was successful superior problem was 10 years ago, astatine nan tallness of nan country’s civilian war, erstwhile his forces mislaid power complete parts of nan largest city, Aleppo, and his opponents were closing successful connected nan capital, Damascus.
Back then, he was rescued by his chief world backer, Russia, and longtime location state Iran, which on pinch Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah militia helped Assad’s forces retake Aleppo, tipping nan warfare firmly successful his favor.
Now, arsenic insurgents prosecute a shock offensive that quickly captured not conscionable Aleppo, but nan cardinal metropolis of Hama and a drawstring of different towns crossed nan country’s northwest, nan Syrian leader appears to beryllium mostly connected his own.
Russia is preoccupied pinch its warfare successful Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which astatine 1 constituent sent thousands of its fighters to statement up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong conflict pinch Israel. Iran, meanwhile, has seen its proxies crossed nan region degraded by Israeli airstrikes.
Moreover, Syrian troops are exhausted and hollowed retired by 13 years of warfare and economical crises, pinch small will near to fight.
So will Assad’s norm illness successful nan adjacent future?
“The coming days and weeks will beryllium captious successful determining whether nan rebel violative poses an existential threat to nan Assad authorities aliases whether nan authorities manages to regain its footing and push backmost connected caller rebel gains,” said Mona Yacoubian, an expert pinch nan United States Institute for Peace.
“While weakened and distracted, Assad’s friends are improbable to simply cave to nan rebels’ offensive,” she wrote successful an analysis.
Not retired of nan woods
Until recently, it seemed that Syria’s president was almost retired of nan woods. He ne'er really won nan long-running civilian war, and ample parts of nan state were still extracurricular his control.
But aft 13 years of conflict, it appeared that nan worst was complete and that nan world was fresh to forget. Once viewed arsenic a location pariah, Assad saw Arab countries warming up to him again, renewing ties and reinstating Syria’s rank successful nan Arab League. Earlier this year, Italy besides decided to reopen its embassy successful Damascus aft a decade of strained relations.
OMAR HAJ KADOUR via Getty Images
In nan aftermath of 1 of nan world’s largest humanitarian crises, assistance groups and world donors successful Syria began pivoting toward spending much connected nan country’s betterment than connected emergency assistance, providing a lifeline for Syrians and restoring basal services.
But past nan abrupt violative launched by insurgents connected Nov. 27 reignited nan warfare and caught everyone disconnected defender pinch its scope and speed.
It besides near Syria’s neighbors anxious, wary that unit and refugees could spill crossed borders and worried astir nan increasing power of Islamist groups, a awesome interest for astir of Syria’s Arab neighbors.
Geopolitical shifts
Analysts opportunity a confluence of geopolitical developments opening pinch Russia’s penetration of Ukraine successful February 2022, followed by nan Israel-Hamas warfare successful Gaza that started connected Oct. 7, 2023, helped create nan opportunity for Assad’s opponents to pounce.
As nan rebels precocious this past week, Syrian forces appeared to melt away, putting up nary resistance, pinch respective reports of defection. Russian forces carried retired occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s leader successful Lebanon said nan group will proceed to support Syria, but made nary mention of sending fighters again.
“The rebel battle underscores nan precarious quality of authorities power successful Syria,” Yacoubian wrote.
“Its abrupt eruption and nan velocity pinch which rebel groups managed to overtake Aleppo ... expose nan analyzable dynamics that reside conscionable beneath nan aboveground successful Syria and tin toggle shape superficial calm into awesome conflict.”
Aron Lund, a Syria master pinch Century International, a New York-based deliberation vessel and a interrogator pinch nan Swedish Defense Research Agency, said nan developments successful Syria are a geopolitical disaster for Russia and Iran.
OMAR HAJ KADOUR via Getty Images
“They excessively were surely amazed by what happened, and they person each sorts of assets constraints,” including Russia’s warfare successful Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses successful Lebanon and Syria.
Exhausted and surgery
While nan country’s conflict lines person been mostly stalemated since 2020, Syria’s economical woes person only multiplied successful nan past fewer years.
The imposition of U.S. sanctions, a banking situation successful neighboring Lebanon and an earthquake past twelvemonth contributed to nan truth that almost each Syrians look utmost financial hardship.
That has caused authorities institutions and salaries to wither.
“If you can’t salary your soldiers a surviving wage, past possibly you can’t expect them to enactment and conflict erstwhile thousands of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund said. “It is conscionable an exhausted, surgery and dysfunctional regime” to commencement with.
Part of nan insurgents’ effort to reassert their grip connected Aleppo, nan metropolis wherever they were ousted successful 2016 aft a grueling subject campaign, was to rumor a telephone to authorities soldiers and information agencies to defect, granting them what they called “protection cards,” which connection immoderate benignant of amnesty and assurances that they won’t beryllium hunted down.
The spokesperson for nan insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, said much than 1,600 soldiers person applied for nan cards complete 2 days successful Aleppo city.
Hundreds of defectors lined up extracurricular metropolis constabulary stations Thursday to registry their specifications pinch nan insurgents.
Hossam al-Bakr, 33, primitively from Hama who served successful Damascus and defected 4 years earlier to Aleppo, said he came to “settle his position” and get a caller ID.
The laminated paper handed retired to each defector was titled nan “defection card.” It showed nan name, ID number and spot of work of each defector. It is issued by “The General Command: Military Operations Room.”
Anadolu via Getty Images
On Thursday, Maj. Mohamed Ghoneim, who was successful complaint of registering nan defectors, said much than 1,000 soldiers aliases constabulary officers came to register. Some who were successful possession of their charismatic guns handed them over, he added.
“There are thousands who want to apply,” he said.
Charles Lister, a longtime Syria expert, said while astir of nan world organization has written disconnected nan conflict arsenic either stiff aliases finished, nan equipped guidance has ne'er fixed up and has been training for specified a script for years.
A ragtag group of militias, plagued by infighting and rivalry, spent years preparing and organizing, propelled by a dream to regain power of territory from Assad.
“The authorities has been much susceptible complete nan past twelvemonth aliases 2 than it has possibly been passim nan entirety of nan conflict,” Lister said. “And it has gotten utilized to nan thought that if it tin hold things out, it will yet beryllium to beryllium nan victor.”
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Karam reported from London.
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